Asked by Talia eddings on Sep 24, 2024
Verified
If the firm learns that the complicated technology can be made more stable with a few tweaks increasing the cost by 5.5million and increasing the probability of a launch to 50%.Is it worth for the firm to invest the $500,000 in tweaks?
A) No,because it decreases the total expected value
B) Yes,because it increases expected value
C) No,because it increases risk
D) Yes,because tweaking is good
Complicated Technology
Complicated technology involves systems or devices that are complex in design, functionality, or operation, requiring specialized knowledge or skills to use or maintain.
Expected Value
A mathematical concept representing the average outcome when the same event is repeated multiple times, weighting each outcome by its probability of occurrence.
Tweaks
Tweaks are minor adjustments or modifications made to improve a system, process, or product, often fine-tuning it for better performance or usability.
- Assess the impact of potential changes in development costs and success probabilities on project selection.
Verified Answer
Expected Value = (0.3 * $50million) - $10million = $5million
After tweaking, the expected value of the complicated software is:
Expected Value = (0.5 * $50million) - $15.5million = $9.5million
Therefore, the expected value of the complicated software increases by $4.5million ($9.5million - $5million) after tweaking. Since the cost of tweaking is $500,000, the net increase in expected value is $4million ($4.5million - $0.5million), which is greater than the cost of tweaking. Therefore, it is worth for the firm to invest in the tweaks. Answer B is correct.
Learning Objectives
- Assess the impact of potential changes in development costs and success probabilities on project selection.
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