There are six steps associated with using the Delphi technique for HR demand forecasting.Discuss these steps.

∙ Define and refine the issue or question. During this stage, a project coordinator is assigned, and he or she works with the HR staff to determine the specific job or skills category or activity that will be the focus of the Delphi technique. It is essential that the group targeted for HR forecasting be well defined so that relevant, focused, and detailed feedback based on a minimum of assumptions (redundant assumptions are associated with loss of the experts’ time) can be derived.
∙ Identify the experts, terms, and time horizon. The project coordinator, normally in conjunction with the HR staff, identifies and selects a team of individuals deemed to be experts with respect to the specific human capital grouping that requires a forecast. The number of experts to include in an expert panel typically ranges between 7 and 15. Next, given that in many cases the group of experts will include individuals who are not members of the organization, it is important for both parties to reach agreement on the terms and conditions for participation in the forecasting process, as well as setting the context and explicitly defining the nature of the work. For example, the team of experts must be absolutely clear on which jobs constitute “production workers” if those experts are being asked to derive a demand forecast for this category. Similarly, the exact time horizon(s) must be specified for the human capital category being analyzed.
∙ Orient the experts. In addition to identifying the relevant time horizon(s) and clarifying which employee groups are of interest, the orientation process for experts includes an overview of the demand forecasting decision process. The experts are told either that there will be a predetermined number of questionnaire iterations or that the sequence will continue until a majority opinion exists among the experts.
∙ Issue the first-round questionnaire. The project coordinator sends each expert the questionnaire by courier, fax, mail, or email and includes a time frame for completing and returning it. Typically, this first questionnaire focuses on defining both the explicit assumptions made by each of the experts and the background rationale supporting his or her particular demand estimate.
∙ Issue the first-round questionnaire summary and the second round of questionnaires. Following the completion of the first questionnaire, the project coordinator sends the second and subsequent rounds of questionnaires to the experts with a written summary of the findings from the previous round. The aim of the subsequent questionnaires is to focus the experts’ initial assumptions and estimates by providing summarized feedback from all members of the group. Points of commonality and conflict are identified in the summary, as is the need to clarify specific assumptions identified by the responses to the previous round.
∙ Continue issuing questionnaires. The project coordinator continues to issue questionnaires until either all the predetermined questionnaire stages have been completed and summarized or the group reaches a clear majority decision. In either case, the majority or nth-round summary summarizes the experts’ future demand estimate for the HR category under analysis.