Asked by Jaynese Jones on May 07, 2024

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You have calculated the historical dollar-weighted return, annual geometric average return, and annual arithmetic average return. If you desire to forecast performance for next year, the best forecast will be given by the ________.

A) dollar-weighted return
B) geometric average return
C) arithmetic average return
D) index return

Geometric Average Return

The compounded annual rate of return over time, accounting for the compounding of investment returns.

Arithmetic Average Return

A method of calculating the average return of an investment by simply dividing the sum of all returns by the number of periods.

Dollar-Weighted Return

An investment's return that takes into account the timing and amount of capital inflows and outflows, reflecting the investor's actual experienced rate of return.

  • Gain insight into the differences between arithmetic and geometric average returns, and understand their impact on forecasting investment performance.
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AB
Andrew BernsteinMay 12, 2024
Final Answer :
C
Explanation :
The arithmetic average return is the best choice for forecasting performance for the next year because it assumes that past returns are independent and identically distributed. This method provides an unbiased estimate of the expected return, making it more suitable for short-term forecasts compared to the geometric average or dollar-weighted return, which are influenced by the volatility and timing of cash flows, respectively.