Path 1: Probability: 0.6 × 0.8 = 0.48
CF0 = -500,000 CF
1 = $2,000,000 CF
2 = $3,000,000 I = 9 Solve for NPV = $3,859,902
Path 2: Probability: 0.6 × 0.2 = 0.12
CF
0 = -500,000 CF
1 = $2,000,000 CF
2 = -$500,000 I = 9 Solve for NPV = $914,022
Path 3: Probability: 0.4
CF
0 = -500,000 CF
1 = -1,000,000 I = 9 Solve for NPV
= -$1,417,431
Expected Value = .48 ($3,859,902) + .12 ($914,022) + 0.4 (-$1,417,431)
$1,852,753 + $109,683 - $566,972 = $1,395,464
The present value of the project is a positive $1,395,464. However, there is forty percent chance of losing $1,417,431. Komarek Forests may conclude that the chance of loss is too great, and forego this positive NPV project.